Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates discussed the possibility of a viral pandemic in a TED talk five years ago and recently shared his views on...
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates discussed the possibility of a viral pandemic in a TED talk five years ago and recently shared his views on the worldwide coronavirus outbreak and why he believes the key to winning the battle is global innovation.
“The damage to health, wealth, and well-being has already been enormous. This is like a world war, except in this case, we’re all on the same side. Everyone can work together to learn about the disease and develop tools to fight it,” Gates wrote in a 6,300-word post last Thursday.
“I see global innovation as the key to limiting the damage. This includes innovations in testing, treatments, vaccines, and policies to limit the spread while minimizing the damage to economies and well-being.”
Gates believes most developed countries will be moving into the second phase of the epidemic in the next two months. He said that life would be “semi-normal” — that is to say, times would be abnormal but not as abnormal as during the first phase. People will be able to go out again, “but not as often, and not to crowded places”.
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To offer a better sense of the gradual reopening in developed countries, Gates gave the example of Microsoft’s operation in China, which has roughly 6,200 employees.
“So far about half are now coming in to work,” Gates wrote. “(Microsoft China is) continuing to provide support to employees who want to work at home. They insist people with symptoms stay home. They require masks and provide hand sanitizer and do more intensive cleaning. Even at work, they apply distancing rules and only allow travel for exceptional reasons.”
The post on gatesnotes.com is titled “Pandemic 1,” a reference to COVID-19’s status as “the first modern pandemic”, as Gates put it. He said the pandemic will define this era in the same way that World War II did in its time.
“No one who lives through Pandemic I will ever forget it,” he wrote. “And it is impossible to overstate the pain that people are feeling now and will continue to feel for years to come.”
Continuing the World War II comparison, Gates cited the “amazing amount of innovation” that emerged from that era, including radar, torpedoes and codebreaking. He said he expected the same from the pandemic and he pointed to five categories of innovation: treatments, vaccines, testing, contact tracing and policies for emerging from lockdown orders.
Gates said widespread testing would be critical as life starts to return to normal. He points to the potential of new forms of testing, including a new Rapid Diagnostic Test that could provide results at home without sending a sample to a lab. Gates is also funding researchers conducting a mail-in nasal swab test in the region around Seattle, Washington.
In addition to testing, Gates said contact tracing is also important to stopping the spread of the virus: “China was where the first infection took place. They were able to use stringent isolation and extensive testing to stop most of the spread.”